Ethiopia: TPLF’s Strategy of Chaos
By Elias Amare
I see the ranting gibberish of this Tigrayan “academic” operative of the TPLF —Mehari Yohannes by name, a lecturer of political science at Mekelle University, which gives you an idea of the abysmal state of education in Tigray — as nothing but an extension of the TPLF’s “Strategy of Chaos”.
But, if there is any doubt in any quarter, we emphasize that what this guy is talking about is absolute nonsense. There is no space for any political movement or entity called “Tigray-Tigrigni” or “Agazian” in Eritrea — maybe this exists in the wild fantasies of the Weyane, but never in Eritrea. There is no people called “Tigray” or “Habesha” in Eritrea. There are only Eritreans. Period — ኣርባዕተ ነጥቢ።
There’s no doubt that it’s “Game Over” for the TPLF in Ethiopia. But, we must also note that the TPLF is now like a wounded beast. It’s not going to fold and call it quits as you would expect any rational political actor would do. It’s not going to easily give up its stranglehold on power in Ethiopia that it has been monopolizing for the last 27 years. It will fight back with all kinds of trickery and violence in its arsenal.
Events in the past week in Ethiopia, and the series of urgent conferences the wounded TPLF beast has been conducting in Mekelle, support my thesis of “TPLF’s Strategy of Chaos” that I wrote over two months ago. Whether it will be allowed to succeed to unleash this chaos scenario is, of course, dependent on many factors outside the control of TPLF — both inside Ethiopia and the global Ethiopian body politic, as well as the immediate region, and geopolitical interests of global powers such as US, UK, Europe and China, etc. As I see it, intelligentsia agent provocateurs like this guy are nothing but desperate manipulations of the TPLF that is in deep crisis. Remember, mortally wounded as it is, the TPLF still possesses significant resources at its disposal:
* The military-security apparatus is still under its control, though PM Abiy Ahmed’s latest moves seem to slowly try to wrest control from the narrow clique to the state. So, it’s gonna be a tug-of-war between the formal state and the “deep kleptocratic state” of the Weyane.
* Getachew Assefa’s “Dihninet” security/intelligence network still has an estimated 100 thousand operatives — death-squad units, assassins, spies, informers, agent provocateurs, etc. — deployed throughout the country. This is a dangerous force for the popular movement of democratic reform.
* MONEY, which the TPLF kleptocracy has vast amounts of. And money is the root of all evil, as the saying goes.
In any case, we in Eritrea emphasize (especially to our Ethiopian brothers and sisters) that we will not rest until the TPLF cancer, its divisive sectarianism and its toxic expansionist nationalism, is completely-annihilated.
Neither Eritrea, nor Ethiopia, nor the Horn of Africa will find durable peace and stability unless and until the TPLF Weyane cancer is completely-destroyed.
Once Weyane is destroyed, there will be an opening for an era of new positive possibilities to be ushered in. We cannot afford to miss this historic opportunity. We are not condemned to repeat the vicious cycle of history of the past decades and what the historian Margaret Tuchman referred to as “The March of Folly”.
Here is what I wrote over two months ago on March 25 and posted on my timeline, just before the new Ethiopian Prime Minister was appointed:
So, what is this TPLF’s “Strategy of Chaos” in Ethiopia? Well, from our reading and analysis of situation on the ground, it entails several component factors:
• Contain and reverse the democratic gains that the people have achieved so far through their popular struggle in the past three years;
• Appear to ride the waves of reform, release some of the most prominent political prisoners, force the resignation of the figurehead Prime Minister, etc., in order to appease its Western donors and patrons;
• Immediately reinstate the “state of emergency” and martial rule through a “Command Post”;
• Target Oromia region and the OPDO for repressive measures;
• Unleash terror and violence throughout the country, but especially in the restive Oromia region;
• Paralyze the OPDO and its “reformist” allies in the in lengthy endless meetings of the EPRDF dangling the promise of Prime Ministerial position in front of it, while rapidly trying to create facts on the ground through violence;
• Create a wedge between the pro-reform elements within the OPDO and the Oromo masses, especially the Qeerroo youth leading the uprising; Also created a rift between the reformist wings of the OPDO, ANDM, and SEPDM
• Re-arrest the most prominent political prisoners recently released, and arrest thousands more, especially those in key Oromia region administrative positions;
• Continue the reign of terror at an escalated rate, foment “ethnic clashes” where possible in all the regional states (‘Killils”), except Tigray, of course.;
• Ultimately, restore TPLF’s hegemony of power;
• “Après nous, le déluge” (“After us, the flood”) – If the restoration of TPLF’s hegemony of the past 27 years is not possible, and the people continue their struggle nearing regime overthrow, the TPLF’s plan is to plunge the country into a state of endless civil war, inter-ethnic violence and chaos;
• TPLF then withdraws to Tigray with its loot and plunder of the past decades, secede, taking along with it contiguous states/regions such as Afar on the southeast, and Beni Shangul and Gumuz region on the west southwest. It has already annexed huge chunks of territory from Amhara region in Wolkait and Raya-Azebo. This is the culmination of the Greater Tigray dream that was enshrined in TPLF’s manifesto of 1976.
This seems to be the carefully planned TPLF’s “strategy of chaos” which may seem irrational to some analysts. But there is method and logic to this madness of the “strategy of chaos”. In the end, though, it is #GameOverTPLF! The question before the revolutionary progressive forces in Ethiopia is, should the TPLF be allowed initiative to carry on its “strategy of chaos” to its conclusion and bring about untold misery and destruction to the country?